What does Janet’s Endorsement Mean?
Posted by: Dana
There has been a lot of chatter about the Gov. endorsing Obama and if it really matters. My question is will it matter in AZ? I doubt it. When you think about the Primary voter, who is it? Well it is the senior voter 65 and over. This is Janets base as well as Hillary’s base. Senior women love Janet and they love Hillary. As I mentioned in my Iowa blog the caucus in Iowa was the caucusing of the fittist and it left our many senior women out of the event. They were to frail to caucus. They stayed home and then we had a huge surge in the youth vote. Heck they could register the day of the caucus. This was not the case in NH where the women pulled Hillary to victory. It is my prediction that women will do this in other voting states as well. This includes Arizona. Janet will not have time to what needs to be done to transfer her political power to votes for Obama in Arizona. Any one who knows me knows the senior voter is my expertise and they are loyal and they love Hillary. They might flirt with Obama he is fresh and exciting but if you look at the issues Hillary and Obama are not far apart. Hillary is safe and comfortable. This block of voters are serious voters it is something they always do unless something happens where they are not able to vote. They watch the news, they read the paper but they are not really on the internet but they are starting to explore the internet but it still is not where the recieve all their information. If you crunch the numbers as to the senior vote and the youth vote you know why Obama opened an office months ago - they have a lot of work to do. Obama’s first ad is about health care but this block of voters perks up to ads about Medicare and Social Security so the message to move this block of voters is off target too.
I predict Hillary carries Arizona as well as many Feb. 5th states. Obama has the best chance in states where there is a caucus but I doubt he will carry states where there is an election. The Gov’s endorsemetn might have created a buzz but I doubt it will do any more than that. If the Gov wants her endorsement to translate to votes she will need to do work and lending your name recording a robo call will not translate to votes in a Presidential Primary election. Look at who votes and the answer is clear, Hillary will carry Arizona.
I know Obama is drawing large crowds - well large crowds do not translate to votes. I was looking at the youth vote tonight and Obama has an uphill battle even if they tripple the turnout they still fall short, way short. I could be wrong on this one- but I am betting 20-1 Hillary carries Arizona and Janet will fail to deliver Arizona to the new man in her life.
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I think endorsements mean very little. Having said that, there are a lot of super delegates out there and this may go all the way to the convention. Every delegate may count…
BTW — Obama can win a regular primary as I am sure Hillary could win a caucus. Be careful, you are nearing stockholm syndrome territory. If Obama wins Nevada and South Carolina things will get very interesting (what will her excuse be then?). If Hillary wins both or they split, I think this will go on a long time.
You are absolutely correct, Obama can win a primary and Hillary can win a caucus. It is really early to go out on such a limb but it is just a prediction with one primary and one caucus behind us. The bottom line is this is an exciting year and unlike others. I do think delegates will be an important factor as we navigate unchartered waters.
I am disapointed that the Governor didn’t continue to “ride her horse in the middle of the river” but what can you do…
I respect Napolitano, but I still believe Clinton is the better candidate at this time, and will be backing Clinton in our preference election on Feb. 5th
I was pretty disappointed with Obama’s anti-gay friend in South Carolina (that is an understatement). As a Clinton supporter, what do you think of this:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=3ecbba91-f447-455b-98a3-d92f522a4814
It makes me sick to my stomach. I am not sending this as a gotcha, I honestly want to know what you think.
“…well large crowds do not translate to votes….”
You may well be correct, but the record voter turnouts in Iowa and New Hampshire certainly haven’t been inspired by the Republican field.
February 6th is going to be a *very* interesting day…
[…] I see the same attitude in Dana’s latest post over at Democratic Diva. She talks about Hillary Clinton’s strength among older women, and dismisses Barack […]
A Dem Lament, the incident involving Donnie McClurkin is regrettable, to say the least, but Obama is not the only major candidate with homophobic associations. Clinton’s co-chair in SC, and a $10000 a month consultant for her campaign, is a man by the name of Darrell Jackson. He is a state legislator there and has made comments on the floor of the legislature, condemning the “immoral lifestyle” of gay people and has sponsored legislation to deny them equal rights. Both Clinton and Obama have good records on LGBT issues and Barack has actually acknowledged that homophobia is a problem in the Black community, particulary where HIV/AIDS is concerned.
Well, Feb 5th has come and gone and once again smart, older, battle tested women vote for Clinton.
In my congressional District 2, the older women overwhelmingly supported her…. yea smart women!
Good job in Arizona!