What will Edwards do?
Posted by: Dana
North Carolina will be one of the last states to vote so it is becoming ANOTHER important state. Does Edwards wield enough power to tilt the state towards Hillary or Obama? Will he endorse one over the other or will he stay our of it? One thing is for sure is that he is putting his toes in the water by campaigning with Chelsea at the event with the Young Democrats (Obama’s base). I have heard rumors for sometime that he will endorse Hillary, if he does there are more delegates that may move toward Hillary. What is key is the Steelworkers that endorsed and WORKED for Edwards. (We watched them work the same neighborhoods we were at in Nevada). Steelworkers are a machine in PA. Not sure what will happen with an endorsement from Edwards but it fun to think about.
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One thing for sure, for a lot of Union members, where Edwards goes will matter.
Hillary is way behind in NC and Edwards is not that popular in his home state. Edwards missed his opportunity to be influential in the race.
I think it is fair to say that the rest of the primary plays out as follows: Hillary wins PA, WV and Puerto Rico. Obama wins NC, Indiana and Oregon. At that point, he will be ahead in the delegate count, popular vote and states won. It will be time for her to concede defeat and start working to heal the rifts in our party, so we can beat McCain.
If we have learned anything in this race - anything can and will happen. We can toss all the predictions out the window- talking heads have missed a lot of it. One thing that is certain- dems are excited and all states have a say. SEIU will envade Puerto Rico for their convention the first week in June so they will need to produce or have another Nevada.
What I find interesting, is the discussion of a rift in the party. I know people get adament and strong in their convictions as they support a candidate, but this can’t be anything but positive to have two people discussing what’s wrong with the current leadership and what they would do differently. Having been around a few of these I welcome the fact that we have an opportunity to really define the difference between them and us.
Maybe I am overestimating the rift because my best man (from my wedding) and I can barely speak to each other over our differences in support.
As far as making predictions in this election, Hillary has never overtaken an Obama lead. She has come back to beat him once he over took her lead (Nevada, Texas and New Hampshire). He has been leading in NC, Indiana and Oregon for a while Hillary has a ceiling of support and many of her supporters are hardcore. Her primary (no pun intended) problem is that she is well known and her support tends to peak and then fall.
While it is possible that anything can happen, it is really a matter of probability at this point. It is highly improbable that Hillary will win more than those three states. It is also highly improbable that she will win the nomination.
Not only that, but the super delegates are not breaking for her. She has ceiling there as well. It was a high ceiling, but not high enough.
At this point most of my discussions with my HRC supporting friends consist of “She can win if these several unlikely things happen” and I say “well realistically that is not going to happen” and their answer is “It could too happen”.
One final thing, if the tables were turned at this point and Obama is where HRC is, everyone would be telling him to quit, the media, the party and me. I care more about winning in the fall than seeing Obama win the primary. I wish HRC supporters shared those sentiments. At a certain point, no matter what you think about your candidate and their chances the good of the party becomes more important.
Demlament,
Is it possible for you to just be for Obama and not against Hillary? There is a big difference in the thought process.
I simply can’t understand the need for this to be over. If you were one of the 10 states that have not voted you would be excited that you got to be part of the process. Possibly meet or at least hear BOTH candidates. The race is so close that Obama can’t win unless Hillary drops out.
Just like Florida in 2000 count all the votes. Don’t allow the Supreme Court in this case the media decide who the winner is. Let the people decide. Let the record numbers turn out. Let more democrats register to vote. Let record number of democrats vote for the candidate of their choice. Let their be competition.
Let me go to PA and campaign for my girl. I already have my ticket! Once all states vote then it is a different discussion but that time has not come.
AMEN!!!
These are such bogus arguments. If Hillary was ahead by a hair, the drumbeat for Obama to drop out would burst your eardrums.
YOYO,
I don’t agree. Hillary can’t win straight out without Obama quiting and he can’t win without Hillary quiting. This IS a media war.
Why are record turnouts bogus arguments? We are turning our 2-1 republicans. 2 months then lets discuss. I just got a call from someone who votes wanting to know what is a “super- delegate”
Most people don’t have a clue!
Let the race go on.
My friend who lives in Kentucky is THRILLED to be able to vote and actually matter in his upcoming primary. I think that is fantastic.
I am not concerned about any “rifts” within the party - the point of the convention will be the point of the convention.
Things will be just fine. If I were backing Obama (Which I am not at this point) I would still be saying the exact same thing, let the process work itself out.